CYCLONE EMNATI UPDATE//LAST ACTION OF CYCLONE EMNATI//MUST WATCH//!!

Tropical Cyclone Emnati 2022

Last Modified: 09:00 February 21, 2022 UTC

Emnati 2022

This is a dangerous system. Damaging winds, heavy rainfall, storm surge, rough seas, mudslides, and flash flooding are all possible risks.

Emnati is located 344 km north-northwest of St Denis, and has moved west-southwestward at 11 km/h (6 knots) over the past 6 hours.

By analysis time, upper-level analysis shows this subtropical ridge has passed the longitude of Emnati and the system is now taking on a more southwestward motion.

The subtropical ridge is expected to reorient and recenter to a position near 30S 060E in the next 12 hours, and Emnati will steadily turn onto a southwestward track after 12 hours.

The ongoing eyewall replacement cycle is taking its time to complete, but should be wrapped up in 12 hours. Some additional near-term weakening is possible but overall no significant change in intensity is expected over the next 12 hours.

Once the new eyewall is established, the strong outflow aloft and low shear will allow for renewed intensification, however the very low ocean heat content (less than 40 kJ/cm²) and limited remaining time over water will prove to be tough barriers to significant intensification.

The system is expected to weaken slightly just prior to landfall as it is impacted by an influx of low level offshore flow after landfall in around 36 hours, the system will rapidly weaken over the mountainous terrain.

The system emerges back over water in around 60 hours and turns sharply poleward into a weakness in the subtropical ridge produced by the approach of a strong mid-latitude trough.

Once more over water the system will have a brief time over waters warmer than 26°C, and a small amount of intensification is expected. Emnati will begin subtropical transition (STT) in 3 days and it moves under an upper-level trough.

STT is expected to be complete in 5 days as the system is embedded under the upper-level trough with high (30-40 knots) wind shear and cool (23-24°C) sea surface temperatures.

The JTWC forecast remains very consistent with the previous forecast track, supported by a relatively tight envelope of deterministic and ensemble guidance.

The guidance envelope is 296 km the next 3 days, and shows only a marginal increase to 333 km over the next 5 days. The intensity forecast is highly uncertain, particularly through landfall.

The HWRF and coamps guidance shows a peak of 195 km/h (105 knots) at 12 hours, then hovering between 185-195 km/h (100-105 knots) over the next 24 hours, while the remainder of the guidance remains below 185 km/h (100 knots) over the next 24 hours.

After the rapid weakening over land, guidance shows a very wide spread between 35 km/h (20 knots) and 110 km/h (60 knots). The JTWC forecast lies slightly above the guidance at 24 hours, then tracks just above the consensus mean through the remainder of the forecast.

Confidence is medium in the near-term due to uncertainty on the amount of post-eyewall replacement cycle intensification and low after 3 days due to uncertainty in the amount of weakening over land.

Maximum significant wave height is 9.8 meters (32 feet).

Information provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).


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