Tropical Cyclone GEZANI
Descrição
Tropical Cyclone GEZANI
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 08, 2026:
Location: 18.0°S 56.8°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1001 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 105 nm
34 kt Wind Radii by Quadrant:
50 nm60 nm0 nm50 nm
Gezani is located 237 km north of Port Louis, Mauritius, and has tracked northwestward at 6 km/h (3 knots) over the past 6 hours. Maximum significant wave height is 3.7 meters (12 feet).
Gezani is forecast to track slowly westward over the next 12 to 24 hours as the system remains placed within a weak steering environment.
In around 24 hours, the subtropical ridge to the southwest will build and become the primary steering mechanism. Gezani will then track westward, along the northern edge of the subtropical ridge, as it approaches Madagascar. Landfall along the eastern coast of Madagascar is forecast to occur in around 60 hours.
Gezani is then forecast to continue on a westward track across central Madagascar and emerge within the Mozambique Channel in around 84 hours.
After 84 hours, the system is forecast to begin a southwestward turn as it rounds the northwestern edge of the subtropical ridge. Regrading intensity, Gezani is forecast to gradually intensify over the next 24 hours as shear remains low and the system fights against the dry air around it.
In around 24 hours, the environment is expected to become more favorable as mid-level moisture and outflow channels improve. This will allow for Gezani to more quickly intensify over the next 24 hours through the time of landfall.
A weakening trend will then ensue as the system traverses across Madagascar. Once Gezani emerges within the Mozambique Channel, environmental conditions will once again become much more favorable with low shear and warm sea surface temperatures. As a result, 21W will reintensify through the remainder of the forecast period.
Discounting NAVGEM, numerical model track guidance is in moderate agreement, with a cross-track spread of 232 km at 60 hours (near the time of landfall) which opens up to 537 km at 5 days.
NAVGEM is a significant outlier, it has a much slower track speed and is the only model that loses the vortex over Madagascar. The JTWC track forecast is placed close to the altered consensus (removing NAVGEM) with overall medium confidence.
Intensity guidance generally agrees on a gradual intensification trend over the next 24 hours and a quicker intensification trend over the next 2 days.
Peak intensities range from 95 km/h (50 knots) (GFS) to 155 km/h (85 knots) (COAMPS-TC) at 60 hours. Models then agree on weakening over the next 84 hours and reintensification thereafter.
The JTWC intensity forecast is placed near the consensus with medium confidence.
Warning Number 1. Information provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).
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As of 06:00 UTC Feb 08, 2026:
Location: 18.0°S 56.8°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1001 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 105 nm
34 kt Wind Radii by Quadrant:
50 nm60 nm0 nm50 nm
Gezani is located 237 km north of Port Louis, Mauritius, and has tracked northwestward at 6 km/h (3 knots) over the past 6 hours. Maximum significant wave height is 3.7 meters (12 feet).
Gezani is forecast to track slowly westward over the next 12 to 24 hours as the system remains placed within a weak steering environment.
In around 24 hours, the subtropical ridge to the southwest will build and become the primary steering mechanism. Gezani will then track westward, along the northern edge of the subtropical ridge, as it approaches Madagascar. Landfall along the eastern coast of Madagascar is forecast to occur in around 60 hours.
Gezani is then forecast to continue on a westward track across central Madagascar and emerge within the Mozambique Channel in around 84 hours.
After 84 hours, the system is forecast to begin a southwestward turn as it rounds the northwestern edge of the subtropical ridge. Regrading intensity, Gezani is forecast to gradually intensify over the next 24 hours as shear remains low and the system fights against the dry air around it.
In around 24 hours, the environment is expected to become more favorable as mid-level moisture and outflow channels improve. This will allow for Gezani to more quickly intensify over the next 24 hours through the time of landfall.
A weakening trend will then ensue as the system traverses across Madagascar. Once Gezani emerges within the Mozambique Channel, environmental conditions will once again become much more favorable with low shear and warm sea surface temperatures. As a result, 21W will reintensify through the remainder of the forecast period.
Discounting NAVGEM, numerical model track guidance is in moderate agreement, with a cross-track spread of 232 km at 60 hours (near the time of landfall) which opens up to 537 km at 5 days.
NAVGEM is a significant outlier, it has a much slower track speed and is the only model that loses the vortex over Madagascar. The JTWC track forecast is placed close to the altered consensus (removing NAVGEM) with overall medium confidence.
Intensity guidance generally agrees on a gradual intensification trend over the next 24 hours and a quicker intensification trend over the next 2 days.
Peak intensities range from 95 km/h (50 knots) (GFS) to 155 km/h (85 knots) (COAMPS-TC) at 60 hours. Models then agree on weakening over the next 84 hours and reintensification thereafter.
The JTWC intensity forecast is placed near the consensus with medium confidence.
Warning Number 1. Information provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).
#tropicalcyclone
#hurricane
#africa
#severeweather
#weather
#weatheralerts
#weathertoday
Palavra-chave: meteorologia moz
