Developing Tropical Weather scene 21st January 2019

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea

Issued at 2:42 pm EST on Monday 21 January 2019
for the period until midnight EST Thursday 24 January 2019.
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

At 2pm AEST Monday, a weak tropical low was analysed along the developing monsoon trough, about 190km east of Thursday Island. The system is expected to slowly intensify and track either towards the southwest or southeast over the next few days. Conditions are expected to become more favourable from Thursday and as a result, the potential for tropical cyclone development in either the Gulf of Carpentaria or northwestern Coral Sea will increase .

Another weak tropical low was analysed in the Coral Sea, near 11.8S 158.4E. Atmospheric conditions are not favourable for significant development over the next three days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Tuesday:
Very low
Wednesday:
Very low
Thursday:
Low

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued at 2:43 pm CST on Monday 21 January 2019
for the period until midnight CST Thursday 24 January 2019.
Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:

Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

A weak monsoon trough extends over waters north of the Top End and the Cape York Peninsula. A weak tropical low, 1007 hPa, is currently located within this trough over the Arafura Sea. This low is expected to slowly strengthen and move towards the southwest. It is currently not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone while in the Northern Region, though there is an increased chance of development after entering the Western Region.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region:
Tuesday:
Very Low.
Wednesday:
Very Low.
Thursday:
Very Low.

Another tropical low lies within the trough over the Torres Strait, and is expected to slowly intensify and track towards the southeast or southwest over the next few days. Conditions are expected to become more favourable from Thursday, and, as a result, the potential for tropical cyclone development in either the Gulf of Carpentaria or northwestern Coral Sea will increase.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region:
Tuesday:
Very Low.
Wednesday:
Very Low.
Thursday:
Low.
Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 10:40 am WST on Monday 21 January 2019
for the period until midnight WST Thursday 24 January 2019.
Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

A weak tropical low has developed in the trough well north of the Northern Territory. It is forecast to move generally southwest over the next week, with the risk of it developing into a tropical cyclone increasing later in the week. The system could move close to the Kimberley mid week and then possibly near the Pilbara later in the week.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Tuesday:
Very Low
Wednesday:
Low
Thursday:
Moderate

A tropical low (11U) was located near 12.0S 96.0E at 10am WST Monday, which is about 100 km west of the Cocos Islands. The system is forecast to continue moving westwards, with a small chance of reaching tropical cyclone intensity from Tuesday. It should be well clear of the Cocos Islands by this time. It is likely to move out of the region (west of 90E) on Wednesday.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Tuesday:
Low
Wednesday:
Low
Thursday:
Very Low
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