2"-3" of Rain Still Possible, A Soggy East Tennessee Weekend Ahead! #weather #summer #rain #fall

Good Tuesday evening, my friends! I’m meteorologist Mike Witcher with eastTNweather, and as we wrap up another warm day across East Tennessee, there are no major changes to the forecast tonight. The heat and humidity continue building through the rest of the workweek, but the bigger weather story remains what’s coming our way this weekend. I’m still tracking the potential for 2 to 3 inches of rainfall from late Friday through early Sunday, and Saturday continues to look like a rather soggy day across East Tennessee.

So let’s start with where we are right now.

Summer is definitely trying to make another run at us. Temperatures continue climbing, moisture is increasing and our dew points are heading up. That means the comfortable fall air we enjoyed over the weekend is being replaced by more humidity and more of that summertime feel.

You know what that means — the “air you can wear” is back!

As the heat and humidity build through the remainder of the week, heat index values could push into the 90s in some locations. It’s a pretty dramatic turnaround considering we were enjoying those cool mornings and beautiful fall conditions just a few days ago.

But this return to summer isn’t going to last very long because a much more significant pattern change is still taking shape for the weekend.

I’m continuing to track a deep trough progressing across the country that will eventually swing toward the eastern United States. Ahead of that trough, we’ll continue transporting warm, moisture-rich air northward into the Tennessee Valley.

That increasing moisture becomes extremely important as we get toward Friday.

As the trough approaches and an associated frontal system moves closer, rain chances will begin increasing. Right now, I think late Friday is when we really start turning the corner toward a wetter pattern, and then Saturday continues to look like the wettest portion of the weekend.

And tonight, I’m still looking at the potential for 2 to 3 inches of rainfall across parts of East Tennessee from late Friday through early Sunday.

Again, that does NOT mean everybody gets three inches of rain, and it certainly doesn’t mean it rains nonstop for the entire weekend.

We’re talking about the potential for multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms moving through the region. There will likely be breaks between those rounds, and the exact timing is something we’ll continue narrowing down over the next couple of days.

But confidence is increasing that this will be a widespread soaking rainfall event for at least a good portion of East Tennessee.

And if you have Saturday plans, you need to pay attention to this forecast.

Especially you, Vol fans!

If you’re heading to Knoxville for the UT football game at Neyland Stadium Saturday, I’d definitely have the rain gear ready. Whether you’re tailgating for hours before kickoff or heading straight into the stadium, there’s a pretty good chance you’re going to be dealing with wet weather at some point Saturday.

Exactly when those heavier rounds of rain arrive is still something I’m working on.

That’s why I’m not ready to tell you that it rains during every minute of the game or that your entire tailgate is going to be washed out. We’re still a few days away, and small changes in the speed of this system could make a pretty significant difference in the timing.

But the overall message tonight remains the same:

Saturday looks soggy. Bring the rain gear.

And with rainfall totals potentially reaching 2 to 3 inches in some areas through the entire event, I’ll also be watching the possibility of locally heavy rainfall.

Parts of East Tennessee could certainly use a good soaking rain, so there could be a lot of benefit from this system. But we also know how quickly things can change when you have a moisture-rich atmosphere and multiple rounds of rain moving across the same locations.

If heavier bands repeatedly move over the same areas, localized flooding, ponding of water and poor-drainage flooding could eventually become concerns.

I’m not sounding any flooding alarms tonight. We need to get closer before we know exactly where the heaviest rainfall axis develops and how quickly the rain falls.

And remember: model guidance is guidance, not gospel.

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