UPDATE: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE FREDDY

🌀⚠️UPDATE: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE FREDDY ⚠️🌀: Current Facts: 🌀 Maximum Sustained Winds – 220 km/h 🌀 Maximum Wind Gusts – 315 km/h 🌀 Center Pressure – 939 hPa 🌀 Movement – 31 km/h West This is a dangerous system. Damaging winds, heavy rainfall, storm surge, rough seas, mudslides, and flash flooding are all possible risks. FREDDY is forecast to pass north of both Mauritius and La Reunion within the next 24 hours before making landfall along the south-central coast of Madagascar very late on Tuesday (21/02/2023) The forecast calls for an intensity of 205 km/h (110 knots) before slamming into Madagascar as a SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE equivalent to a category 3 Hurricane As the system crosses the rough terrain of Madagascar it will weaken drastically, losing its low-level structure, but maintaining the mid-level signature. Once exiting the island and emerging into the Mozambique Channel, Freddy will turn to a more westward to west-north-westward track as the steering mechanism shifts to a building subtropical ridge over South Africa. Another round of intensification, and potentially rapid intensification is possible in the channel as the system taps into a very favourable environment, with sea surface temperatures over 29°C, low shear and strong outflow aloft. The only hindrance will be the amount of time it stays over water before making landfall along the central coast of Mozambique. Unsurprisingly, models begin to diverge after landfall but currently models are suggesting FREDDY will re-intensify as soon as the storm exited Madagascar and again moves over warm ocean water in the Mozambique channel, thereafter it could possibly make landfall over Mozambique later this week The CYCLONE is CURRENTLY no threat to South Africa, REMEMBER Tropical systems are notoriously fickle and unpredictable, often exhibiting very erratic movement and the accuracy of predictions provided by weather models typically improves significantly as the lead-time shortens The Vox Weather Team will continue to give updates throughout the week Information provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) #CycloneFreddy #FREDDY