Tropical Low (Invest 95P) continues to develop January 25

JTWC REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.2S 140.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 140.7E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BUILDING CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP IN FROM THE NORTH. A 241136Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS POCKETS OF CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AN ORGANIZED LLCC. A 240013Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS A TIGHT CIRCULATION WITH A SMALL SWATH OF 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH. 95P IS CURRENTLY IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND VERY WARM (30 TO 32 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST AND INTENSIFY BEFORE MOVING OVER LAND. BASED ON PROXIMITY TO THE COAST, SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THE ACTUAL TRACK OF 95P WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON THE INTENSIFICATION RATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. Tropical Cyclone Advice for Tropical Low 1, Marine Wind Warning Summary for Queensland, Initial Minor Flood Warning for the Daintree and Mossman Rivers, Initial Minor Flood Warning for the Mulgrave River, Flood Warning Summary for Queensland, Flood Watch for areas north of Townsville to Normanton including Cape York Peninsula., Severe Thunderstorm Warning for parts of North West and Channel Country Forecast Districts. , Severe Weather Warning for Peninsula, North Tropical Coast and Tablelands and parts of Gulf Country and Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders Forecast Districts. , Forecast Track Map (QLD) for Tropical Low 1.