Tropical Cyclone GEZANI

Tropical Cyclone GEZANI As of 12:00 UTC Feb 10, 2026: Location: 18.1°S 50.1°E Maximum Winds: 110 kt  Gusts: N/A Minimum Central Pressure: 956 mb Environmental Pressure: N/A Radius of Circulation: N/A Radius of Maximum wind: 50 nm 34 kt Wind Radii by Quadrant: 70 nm55 nm70 nm65 nm This is a dangerous system. Possible risks include damaging winds, heavy rainfall, storm surge, rough seas, mudslides, and flash flooding. Information provided by JTWCWind speeds and categorizations may differ from those reported by local meteorological agencies. Gezani is located 289 km east-northeast of Antananarivo, Madagascar, and has tracked westward at 19 km/h (10 knots) over the past 6 hours. Maximum significant wave height is 8.5 meters (28 feet). Gezani is quickly approaching landfall over eastern Madagascar expected to occur within the next few hours. Driven by highly favorable environmental conditions and rapid intensification over the last 12 hours, the system is expected to reach peak of 215–220 km/h (115–120 knots) just prior to landfall. Afterwards, the system is forecast to transit over the island, while interaction with the mountain range and frictional effects of the terrain will result in rapid weakening as reflected by intensity drop to 55 km/h (30 knots). The transit is expected to last about 24 hours, followed by reconsolidation occurring within the Mozambique Channel. Favorable environment encountered by the system on the other side of the island will result in steady intensification. A steering pattern shift is anticipated to begin in around 2 days, with the subtropical ridge forecast to retrogress southeast of Madagascar and attenuate. This is expected to occur concurrently with the amplification of a longwave trough passing to the south, a combination of factors that will induce a poleward deflection of Gezani. In regard to intensity, multi-model consensus reflects the general agreement on weakening over land, followed by reconsolidation and intensification afterwards. Favorable conditions will result in system once again reaching 120–130 km/h (65–70 knots) wind speeds. Model guidance has come to a better agreement in regard to the general synoptic pattern, but uncertainty remains, with some models (NAVGEM, ECMWF) still indicating less of an impact from the longwave trough and potential for the cyclone to closely approach the coastal Mozambique. This latter scenario results in a failure of the cyclone to phase with the advancing baroclinic trough, thereby permitting Gezani to maintain a more westward trajectory. The official JTWC forecast adheres to the consensus recurvature scenario, but overall confidence in the track forecast is assessed as medium. Cross-track spread among the multi-model consensus members is only 74 km in around 24 hours, expanding to 222 km at 3 days. In terms of intensity, a large intensification spread (10–50 knots) upon the reconsolidation within the Mozambique Channel results in low confidence in the long range intensity projection. Warning Number 6. Information provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). #tropicalcyclone #hurricane #africa #severeweather #weather #weatheralerts #weathertoday