Tropical Cyclone GEZANI
Descrição
Tropical Cyclone GEZANI
As of 18:00 UTC Feb 09, 2026:
Location: 18.1°S 52.9°E
Maximum Winds: 70 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 987 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 50 nm
34 kt Wind Radii by Quadrant:
50 nm50 nm50 nm70 nm
This is a dangerous system. Possible risks include damaging winds, heavy rainfall, storm surge, rough seas, mudslides, and flash flooding.
Information provided by JTWCWind speeds and categorizations may differ from those reported by local meteorological agencies.
Gezani is located 319 km north-northwest of Saint-Denis, and has tracked westward at 15 km/h (8 knots) over the past 6 hours. Maximum significant wave height is 8.2 meters (27 feet).
Gezani is forecast to maintain a westward track along the northern edge of a deep-layer subtropical ridge positioned too the south over the next 24 to 36 hours. Landfall along the eastern coast of Madagascar near thoamasina is expected shortly after 24 hours.
Post-landfall, Gezani will execute a gradual southwestward recurvature as the steering ridge reorients to a southwest-northeast axis. The low-level circulation center is projected to fully decouple from the mid-level vortex upon interaction with the orographic barrier of the central Madagascar massif; the surface center will likely be attenuated while mid-level vorticity transits rapidly southwestward, reaching the western littoral in 2 days.
Upon emergence over the Mozambique Channel, the vortex will re-establish surface coupling and continue a southwestward track until the next 4 days.
Subsequently, the system will turn sharply poleward into a weakness in the ridge induced by the passage of a deep-layer upper-level trough. Regarding intensity, the environmental profile is primed for RI, contingent upon vortex axisymmetrization.
With diminishing shear and enhanced poleward outflow, RI commencement is anticipated within the next few hours. Peak intensity is forecast at 175 km/h (95 knots) at 24 hours, though near-shore intensification may yield a 100-knots maximum at landfall.
Gezani will rapidly weaken to 55 km/h (30 knots) by the time it reaches the west coast of Madagascar but strengthen expeditiously over open water as the vortex builds back down to the surface and reorganizes.
A secondary intensification Phase Is forecast through the end of the forecast period, leveraging favorable shear and enhanced poleward outflow.
While not explicity forecast at the current time, the possibility of a second round of RI after 3 days is a distinct probability. The deterministic, ensemble and artificial intelligence (AI) model package exhibits robust spatial concurrence, validating the westward track over the next 36 hours followed by recurvature and poleward acceleration after 96.
The GFS-GEFS represent the northern and western cross-track outliers, while the ECMWF-ECENS define the southern and eastern boundary of the guidance envelope.
Cross-track spread expands to 463 km in 5 days. The GFS and GEFS show the most gradual turn and mark the northern and western boundary of the guidance envelope, while the ECMWF and ECENS show the sharpest and fastest turn and outline the southern and eastern edge of the envelope.
Cross-track spread gradually increases to 463 km by the end of the forecast period. The remainder of the guidance is equally spread between the two outliers.
The JTWC forecast is placed just north and west of the consensus mean, consistent with the consensus of the AI members, with high confidence over the next 3 days, and medium confidence thereafter.
Intensity guidance is also in good agreement on the overall shape of the trend, with a modest amount of spread. SHIPS and COAMPS-TC (NAVGEM) constitute the conservative lower bound (70 knots), whereas HAFS-A, HWRF, and COAMPS-TC (GFS) project pre-landfall peaks of 155–165 km/h (85–90 knots).
Statistical RI aids (RICN, ride, RIPA) have been triggered, supporting peaks of 185–195 km/h (100–105 knots). Both the COAMPS-TC and ECMWF ensemble RI probabilities exceed 40% (COAMPS-TC is 90%).
The JTWC forecast follows the RI guidance over the next 24 hours, then HAFS-A over the next 2 days. During the second intensification period, all of the guidance save for the SHIPS, shows a steep intensification trend (the HWRF in fact reaches 215 km/h (115 knots) in 5 days).
The JTWC forecast is on the higher edge of the envelope and above all of the guidance except for the HWRF during the extended forecast.
Confidence is medium throughout the forecast period.
Warning Number 4. Information provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).
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As of 18:00 UTC Feb 09, 2026:
Location: 18.1°S 52.9°E
Maximum Winds: 70 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 987 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 50 nm
34 kt Wind Radii by Quadrant:
50 nm50 nm50 nm70 nm
This is a dangerous system. Possible risks include damaging winds, heavy rainfall, storm surge, rough seas, mudslides, and flash flooding.
Information provided by JTWCWind speeds and categorizations may differ from those reported by local meteorological agencies.
Gezani is located 319 km north-northwest of Saint-Denis, and has tracked westward at 15 km/h (8 knots) over the past 6 hours. Maximum significant wave height is 8.2 meters (27 feet).
Gezani is forecast to maintain a westward track along the northern edge of a deep-layer subtropical ridge positioned too the south over the next 24 to 36 hours. Landfall along the eastern coast of Madagascar near thoamasina is expected shortly after 24 hours.
Post-landfall, Gezani will execute a gradual southwestward recurvature as the steering ridge reorients to a southwest-northeast axis. The low-level circulation center is projected to fully decouple from the mid-level vortex upon interaction with the orographic barrier of the central Madagascar massif; the surface center will likely be attenuated while mid-level vorticity transits rapidly southwestward, reaching the western littoral in 2 days.
Upon emergence over the Mozambique Channel, the vortex will re-establish surface coupling and continue a southwestward track until the next 4 days.
Subsequently, the system will turn sharply poleward into a weakness in the ridge induced by the passage of a deep-layer upper-level trough. Regarding intensity, the environmental profile is primed for RI, contingent upon vortex axisymmetrization.
With diminishing shear and enhanced poleward outflow, RI commencement is anticipated within the next few hours. Peak intensity is forecast at 175 km/h (95 knots) at 24 hours, though near-shore intensification may yield a 100-knots maximum at landfall.
Gezani will rapidly weaken to 55 km/h (30 knots) by the time it reaches the west coast of Madagascar but strengthen expeditiously over open water as the vortex builds back down to the surface and reorganizes.
A secondary intensification Phase Is forecast through the end of the forecast period, leveraging favorable shear and enhanced poleward outflow.
While not explicity forecast at the current time, the possibility of a second round of RI after 3 days is a distinct probability. The deterministic, ensemble and artificial intelligence (AI) model package exhibits robust spatial concurrence, validating the westward track over the next 36 hours followed by recurvature and poleward acceleration after 96.
The GFS-GEFS represent the northern and western cross-track outliers, while the ECMWF-ECENS define the southern and eastern boundary of the guidance envelope.
Cross-track spread expands to 463 km in 5 days. The GFS and GEFS show the most gradual turn and mark the northern and western boundary of the guidance envelope, while the ECMWF and ECENS show the sharpest and fastest turn and outline the southern and eastern edge of the envelope.
Cross-track spread gradually increases to 463 km by the end of the forecast period. The remainder of the guidance is equally spread between the two outliers.
The JTWC forecast is placed just north and west of the consensus mean, consistent with the consensus of the AI members, with high confidence over the next 3 days, and medium confidence thereafter.
Intensity guidance is also in good agreement on the overall shape of the trend, with a modest amount of spread. SHIPS and COAMPS-TC (NAVGEM) constitute the conservative lower bound (70 knots), whereas HAFS-A, HWRF, and COAMPS-TC (GFS) project pre-landfall peaks of 155–165 km/h (85–90 knots).
Statistical RI aids (RICN, ride, RIPA) have been triggered, supporting peaks of 185–195 km/h (100–105 knots). Both the COAMPS-TC and ECMWF ensemble RI probabilities exceed 40% (COAMPS-TC is 90%).
The JTWC forecast follows the RI guidance over the next 24 hours, then HAFS-A over the next 2 days. During the second intensification period, all of the guidance save for the SHIPS, shows a steep intensification trend (the HWRF in fact reaches 215 km/h (115 knots) in 5 days).
The JTWC forecast is on the higher edge of the envelope and above all of the guidance except for the HWRF during the extended forecast.
Confidence is medium throughout the forecast period.
Warning Number 4. Information provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).
#tropicalcyclone
#hurricane
#africa
#severeweather
#weather
#weatheralerts
#weathertoday
Palavra-chave: ciclone gezani
