Eloise 19 Jan 2021 #2

Tropical Storm Eloise 2021 Last Modified: 09:00 January 19, 2021 UTC Eloise is located 663 km (358 nautical miles) northeast of Antananarivo, Madagascar, and has tracked southwestward at 7 km/h (4 knots) over the past 6 hours. Satellite imagery reveals a partially exposed low level circulation center (LLCC) with deep convection wrapping around the northern and eastern quadrants. Based on the satellite imagery and an MHS microwave image, there is good confidence in the initial position. Environmental analysis reveals an overall moderately favorable environment characterized by good equatorward outflow and warm (29-30°C) sea surface temperatures offset by low to moderate (10-20 knots) vertical wind shear. Eloise is forecast to track generally southwestward throughout the forecast period under the steering influence of a subtropical ridge positioned to the southeast. In the near term, Eloise is expected to make landfall in northeastern Madagascar in 12 hours then slowly weaken to 55 km/h (30 knots) as it transits across the rugged island terrain before exiting over the Mozambique Channel in around 54 hours. The warm waters of the Mozambique Channel will enable Eloise to steadily re-intensify to 130 km/h (70 knots) prior to making final landfall near Maxixe in southern Mozambique. Forecast models remain in fairly tight agreement throughout the forecast. Of note, the GFS and GFS ensemble trackers maintain the system along a slightly more northern track than the other consensus models. The 19/00:00 UTC ECMWF ensemble solution shows good agreement among the ensemble members in the extended forecast, lending overall high confidence to the JTWC track forecast which is placed near the multi-model consensus. Maximum significant wave height at 19/06:00 UTC is 16 feet (4.9 meters). Information provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). Source: zoomearth