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Can Mozambique's Islamist Insurgency Be Stopped?

03/09/2026 · Prof James Ker-Lindsay

Descrição

Can Mozambique beat its Islamist insurgency? Since 2017, Mozambique has faced a brutal conflict in Cabo Delgado, where militants linked to the Islamic State, known locally as Ansar al-Sunnah or Al-Shabab, launched a violent uprising that has killed more than 6,000 people and displaced over one million. Despite military support from Rwanda, the Southern African Development Community (SADC), the European Union, and earlier involvement by private military contractors, the insurgency has proved resilient. At the same time, attacks on key energy projects, including major natural gas investments by Total and Exxon, have shaken investor confidence and threatened one of Africa’s most significant emerging LNG hubs. And even though government forces have retaken major towns, a recent spike in violence shows the militants are far from defeated. This video examines the roots of the Mozambique conflict, from the country’s colonial history and civil war legacy to poverty, marginalisation, and disputes over northern Mozambique gas revenues. From there, the video explores why the Cabo Delgado insurgency has persisted despite international counterterrorism efforts. Key questions raised are whether military force alone can defeat the Islamic State–affiliated militants, and what role governance, development, and regional security cooperation should play in ending the crisis. Drawing on the wider lessons of insurgency and counterinsurgency, this analysis explores whether Mozambique can achieve lasting stability, or whether the cycle of violence in northern Mozambique is set to continue. *VIDEO CHAPTERS* 00:00 Introduction and Titles 00:50 Insurgencies and the Case of Mozambique 01:53 Mozambique: Location, Population, and Religion 02:40 The Emergence of Mozambique 03:52 The Mozambique Civil War and Reconstruction 04:54 The Rise of the Cabo Delgado Insurgency 06:00 Efforts to Defeat the Mozambique Insurgency 08:47 Counterinsurgency in Mozambique: Success and Setbacks 10:23 Can Mozambique Defeat Its Islamist Insurgency? *SUPPORT INDEPENDENT ANALYSIS* If you enjoy the channel and would like to support independent analysis of international relations, conflict, and security, there are several ways you can help: SUBSCRIBE FOR FREE www.youtube.com/channel/UCEszqJb1FjYisBevHBIof3g http://www.youtube.com/c/JamesKerLindsay?sub_confirmation=1 JOIN THE COMMUNITY AND BECOME A CHANNEL MEMBER YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/c/JamesKerLindsay/join Patreon: http://www.patreon.com/JamesKerLindsay *MY LATEST BOOK!* Secession and State Creation: What Everyone Needs to Know Oxford University Press https://global.oup.com/academic/product/secession-and-state-creation-9780190494049 Amazon https://amzn.to/2MPY3W2 Some of the links above are affiliate links. These pay a small commission if you make a purchase. This helps to support the channel at no additional cost to you. #Mozambique #CaboDelgado #Rwanda

Palavra-chave: moçambique

Tags: International Relations · James Ker-Lindsay · Mozambique Insurgency · Cabo Delgado Conflict · Islamic State Mozambique · Ansar Al-Sunnah · Al-Shabab Mozambique · ISCAP · African Security · Counterinsurgency · Rwanda Troops Mozambique · SADC Mission Mozambique · EU Training Mission Mozambique · LNG Mozambique · Palma Attack · Conflict And Security · East Africa Terrorism · Mozambique · SADC · SAMIM · SAMIM Mozambique · Mozambique Rwanda · Mozambique conflict · Africa terrorism · Cabo Delgado conflict

Comentários

@JamesKerLindsay · 20/02/2026 · 👍 59

This is another one of those situations that really doesn't get the attention it deserves. Over the past decade, the Islamist insurgency in Northern Mozambique has led to thousands of deaths and has displaced more than a million people. And yet it received next to no coverage. It's also a very clear example of the damage done by the Trump Administration's overseas aid cuts. But just how far should the international community become involved militarily in such situations? For example, should the EU expand its operations in the country? Or should it fund Southern African states to fight the insurgency? And can the insurgency be defeated? As ever, I look forward to your thoughts and comments below.

@wezo_89 · 20/02/2026 · 👍 59

I'm following you from Egypt; your topics are unique and interesting

@didi-c8d8u · 23/02/2026 · 👍 58

I'm South African. Mozambique is unnervingly close to us ,I've always feared if Mozambique falls we may be next and as a woman in the rural parts of South Africa who can't just buy private security I'm not sure my country can help protect those like me.

@IAmTheOnlyLucas · 20/02/2026 · 👍 76

Professor returns to my beloved Mozambique! I was a Peace Corps volunteer in Zambezia province in 2017 when the insurgency forced many volunteers from our organization out of Cabo Delgado. Al Shabaab and the Maputo government were made for each other, as a uniquely weak Islamist insurgency is pitted against a uniquely weak African national government. Keeping up with Mozambican local news, it's not uncommon to read headlines about short truces and agreements to free hostages or vacate villages in exchange for food. FRELIMO is still dealing with the fallout of their rigging of the 2024 national elections, so consolidating a whole of state and society effort to oust militants and win the peace in faraway Cabo Delgado is hardly a priority for Maputo bigwigs.

@adamski-l5w · 21/02/2026 · 👍 9

Thank you for the video James. I think the extended commitment to bringing to attention under-reported conflicts is very helpful in understanding the world. Not a happy story but we all need to understand the planet we share. Greetings from 🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺

@JustCallMeJames1 · 21/02/2026 · 👍 6

Thank you for having a diverse coverage of situations around the globe. This is yet another issue where I have heard about it, but only sporadically over the years, and mostly from oil POV. Having more comprehensive and chronological breakdown is very nice.

@KonradAdenauerJr · 20/02/2026 · 👍 48

Have the Mozambican and/ or international forces reached out to the local Muslim imams and other religious leaders in Cabo Delgado? The imams could help in countering the jihadis' messages and recruitment efforts. A sustained economic and social development effort in the area can also help.

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